TL;DR

• An increase in risk taking, mainstream figures entering into crypto, a jump in corporate spending, and increased political dialogue, suggest we’re nearing the ‘mania’ phase of the bull run.

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You know the signs that precedes rain?

There’s a smell in the air, wind starts to pick up, and the clouds get dark…

This is like the crypto bull run version of that.

There’s a ‘mania’ phase in the last leg of each crypto bull run that brings us to the four year cycle high.

It can last weeks. It can last months.

Either way — when it hits, things (price appreciation) tend to get crazy.

The symptoms of the mania phase include:

A massive increase in risk taking, mainstream figures entering in crypto, a jump in crypto-focused spending by corporations, and an uptick in political dialogue.

…and we’re starting to see these symptoms show themselves:

1. Increase in risk taking: volume and active traders just reached an all time high on the crypto betting platform, Polymarkets.

2. Mainstream figures entering crypto: Caitlyn Jenner and Iggy Azalea just launched their own memecoins.

3. Corporations spending big on crypto: we just got back from Consensus 2024, and across the three day conference, there was enough money being spent on parties to fund ten new projects.

4. An uptick in political dialogue: after the SEC pivoted and approved a slew of Ethereum ETFs, crypto is being framed by many on both sides as a potential election issue.

This doesn’t confirm or deny that we’re in the mania phase — looking at prices rn, we’d wager we’re still a ways off from it yet.

But there’s definitely a smell in the air, and the wind is certainly starting to pick up…