TL;DR

• In the lead up to both the 2016 and 2020 Bitcoin halvings, BTC’s price saw a 40-50% drop in price from its then recent highs.

• Now a bunch of crypto-market-big-brains are predicting that we’re about to see something similar happen in the lead up to this year’s halving (April 20), with a ~30% drop from the recent high of ~$48k, to ~$34k.

Full Story

Alright, time for our bi-weekly(ish) check in with Bitcoin.

BTC bounced off its $38.5k lows of last week, and shot back up to ~$42k over the past 4 days or so.

(That’s a cool $70B worth of total market value, regained in a weekend. Not bad!)

That’s the good news…

Now, let’s get a little doomy n’ gloomy, by diving into some finance-bro-astrology (aka the technical analysis of chart patterns).

ICYMI: in the lead up to both the 2016 and 2020 Bitcoin halvings, BTC’s price saw a 40-50% drop in price from its then recent highs (see image ☝️).

And now a bunch of crypto-market-big-brains are predicting that we’re about to see something similar happen in the lead up to this year’s halving (April 20), with a ~30% drop from the recent high of ~$48k, to ~$34k.

Is this a lock?

No. Not at all.

A lot has changed since 2016/2020, for Bitcoin and the crypto market as a whole. So just because it has happened twice in the past, doesn’t guarantee third time will be a charm.

That said, a lot of people base their buying/selling decisions around these patterns — so even if the process does feel a little silly/made up — they can still predict/move markets.

Now we play the waiting game…