Alright, buckle up, we're getting nerdy.

If you're a long term investor in cryptocurrency, it might help to look at the market-value-to-realized-value (MVRV) ratio of a coin.

On the surface, it's a bit of a brain wrinkler, but once you break it down it makes sense. So let's do that.

Market Value (MV) = the total value of a coin's supply.

E.g. If a crypto has 10M coins circulating, and each are worth $2, the MV = $20M (10M coins x $2)

Realized Value (RV) = the total amount invested into a coin.

E.g. If the same 10M coins from the example above are circulating, but only 5M of them have actually been purchased (let's say at an average of $1 per coin), the RV = $5M (5M coins bought x $1).

To get the MVRV ratio, we divide MV by RV - in this case $2/$1, which would give us an MVRV of 2.

It's basically a representation of whether or not the total pool of investors in a coin could sell their holdings for a profit, at any moment in time.

If the MVRV is less than 1, it means most investors coins are now worth less than they paid for them. If it's above 1, it means they are worth more than what was paid.

'Ok, cool story, nerd. Where's this going?'

Fair point. It's going here:

Typically, when the MVRV reaches 3.5, it signals the top of a bull run.

(I.e. the coin's price can't climb much higher, and it's most likely about to fall).

...and when the MVRV sits around 0.8, it typically signals the bottom of a bear market.

(Or the coin's price can't get much lower, and it's most likely about to start climbing again).

The good news is: Bitcoin's MVRV has been hovering around 0.8 for the past few weeks. Which is a solid indication for price, in the long term.

While nothing is set in stone, it's a good sign!

(We'll take it).